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 predictive modeling


VAIN: Attentional Multi-agent Predictive Modeling

Neural Information Processing Systems

Multi-agent predictive modeling is an essential step for understanding physical, social and team-play systems. Recently, Interaction Networks (INs) were proposed for the task of modeling multi-agent physical systems. One of the drawbacks of INs is scaling with the number of interactions in the system (typically quadratic or higher order in the number of agents). In this paper we introduce VAIN, a novel attentional architecture for multi-agent predictive modeling that scales linearly with the number of agents. We show that VAIN is effective for multi-agent predictive modeling. Our method is evaluated on tasks from challenging multi-agent prediction domains: chess and soccer, and outperforms competing multi-agent approaches.



Geometric-Stochastic Multimodal Deep Learning for Predictive Modeling of SUDEP and Stroke Vulnerability

Girish, Preksha, Mysore, Rachana, U, Mahanthesha, Kumar, Shrey, Annigeri, Misbah Fatimah, Jain, Tanish

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy (SUDEP) and acute ischemic stroke are life-threatening conditions involving complex interactions across cortical, brainstem, and autonomic systems. We present a unified geometric-stochastic multimodal deep learning framework that integrates EEG, ECG, respiration, SpO2, EMG, and fMRI signals to model SUDEP and stroke vulnerability. The approach combines Riemannian manifold embeddings, Lie-group invariant feature representations, fractional stochastic dynamics, Hamiltonian energy-flow modeling, and cross-modal attention mechanisms. Stroke propagation is modeled using fractional epidemic diffusion over structural brain graphs. Experiments on the MULTI-CLARID dataset demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and interpretable biomarkers derived from manifold curvature, fractional memory indices, attention entropy, and diffusion centrality. The proposed framework provides a mathematically principled foundation for early detection, risk stratification, and interpretable multimodal modeling in neural-autonomic disorders.


Physics-informed self-supervised learning for predictive modeling of coronary artery digital twins

Sun, Xiaowu, Mahendiran, Thabo, Senouf, Ortal, Auberson, Denise, De Bruyne, Bernard, Fournier, Stephane, Muller, Olivier, Frossard, Pascal, Abbe, Emmanuel, Thanou, Dorina

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cardiovascular disease is the leading global cause of mortality, with coronary artery disease (CAD) as its most prevalent form, necessitating early risk prediction. While 3D coronary artery digital twins reconstructed from imaging offer detailed anatomy for personalized assessment, their analysis relies on computationally intensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD), limiting scalability. Data-driven approaches are hindered by scarce labeled data and lack of physiological priors. To address this, we present PINS-CAD, a physics-informed self-supervised learning framework. It pre-trains graph neural networks on 200,000 synthetic coronary digital twins to predict pressure and flow, guided by 1D Navier-Stokes equations and pressure-drop laws, eliminating the need for CFD or labeled data. When fine-tuned on clinical data from 635 patients in the multicenter FAME2 study, PINS-CAD predicts future cardiovascular events with an AUC of 0.73, outperforming clinical risk scores and data-driven baselines. This demonstrates that physics-informed pretraining boosts sample efficiency and yields physiologically meaningful representations. Furthermore, PINS-CAD generates spatially resolved pressure and fractional flow reserve curves, providing interpretable biomarkers. By embedding physical priors into geometric deep learning, PINS-CAD transforms routine angiography into a simulation-free, physiology-aware framework for scalable, preventive cardiology.


VAIN: Attentional Multi-agent Predictive Modeling

Yedid Hoshen

Neural Information Processing Systems

One of the drawbacks of INs is scaling with the number of interactions in the system (typically quadratic or higher order in the number of agents). In this paper we introduce V AIN, a novel attentional architecture for multi-agent predictive modeling that scales linearly with the number of agents. We show that V AIN is effective for multi-agent predictive modeling.


Conditional Generative Moment-Matching Networks

Yong Ren, Jun Zhu, Jialian Li, Yucen Luo

Neural Information Processing Systems

Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) has been successfully applied to learn deep generative models for characterizing a joint distribution of variables via kernel mean embedding. In this paper, we present conditional generative moment-matching networks (CGMMN), which learn a conditional distribution given some input variables based on a conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD) criterion. The learning is performed by stochastic gradient descent with the gradient calculated by back-propagation. We evaluate CGMMN on a wide range of tasks, including predictive modeling, contextual generation, and Bayesian dark knowledge, which distills knowledge from a Bayesian model by learning a relatively small CGMMN student network. Our results demonstrate competitive performance in all the tasks.


Physics-augmented Multi-task Gaussian Process for Modeling Spatiotemporal Dynamics

Zhang, Xizhuo, Yao, Bing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in sensing and imaging technologies have enabled the collection of high-dimensional spatiotemporal data across complex geometric domains. However, effective modeling of such data remains challenging due to irregular spatial structures, rapid temporal dynamics, and the need to jointly predict multiple interrelated physical variables. This paper presents a physics-augmented multi-task Gaussian Process (P-M-GP) framework tailored for spatiotemporal dynamic systems. Specifically, we develop a geometry-aware, multi-task Gaussian Process (M-GP) model to effectively capture intrinsic spatiotemporal structure and inter-task dependencies. To further enhance the model fidelity and robustness, we incorporate governing physical laws through a physics-based regularization scheme, thereby constraining predictions to be consistent with governing dynamical principles. We validate the proposed P-M-GP framework on a 3D cardiac electrodynamics modeling task. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method significantly improves prediction accuracy over existing methods by effectively incorporating domain-specific physical constraints and geometric prior.


Enabling Down Syndrome Research through a Knowledge Graph-Driven Analytical Framework

Krishnamurthy, Madan, Saha, Surya, Lo, Pierrette, Whetzel, Patricia L., Issabekova, Tursynay, Vargas, Jamed Ferreris, DiGiovanna, Jack, Haendel, Melissa A

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trisomy 21 results in Down syndrome, a multifaceted genetic disorder with diverse clinical phenotypes, including heart defects, immune dysfunction, neurodevelopmental differences, and early-onset dementia risk. Heterogeneity and fragmented data across studies challenge comprehensive research and translational discovery. The NIH INCLUDE (INvestigation of Co-occurring conditions across the Lifespan to Understand Down syndromE) initiative has assembled harmonized participant-level datasets, yet realizing their potential requires integrative analytical frameworks. We developed a knowledge graph-driven platform transforming nine INCLUDE studies, comprising 7,148 participants, 456 conditions, 501 phenotypes, and over 37,000 biospecimens, into a unified semantic infrastructure. Cross-resource enrichment with Monarch Initiative data expands coverage to 4,281 genes and 7,077 variants. The resulting knowledge graph contains over 1.6 million semantic associations, enabling AI-ready analysis with graph embeddings and path-based reasoning for hypothesis generation. Researchers can query the graph via SPARQL or natural language interfaces. This framework converts static data repositories into dynamic discovery environments, supporting cross-study pattern recognition, predictive modeling, and systematic exploration of genotype-phenotype relationships in Down syndrome.



Geometry-aware Active Learning of Spatiotemporal Dynamic Systems

Xizhuo, null, Zhang, null, Yao, Bing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Rapid developments in advanced sensing and imaging have significantly enhanced information visibility, opening opportunities for predictive modeling of complex dynamic systems. However, sensing signals acquired from such complex systems are often distributed across 3D geometries and rapidly evolving over time, posing significant challenges in spatiotemporal predictive modeling. This paper proposes a geometry-aware active learning framework for modeling spatiotemporal dynamic systems. Specifically, we propose a geometry-aware spatiotemporal Gaussian Process (G-ST-GP) to effectively integrate the temporal correlations and geometric manifold features for reliable prediction of high-dimensional dynamic behaviors. In addition, we develop an adaptive active learning strategy to strategically identify informative spatial locations for data collection and further maximize the prediction accuracy. This strategy achieves the adaptive trade-off between the prediction uncertainty in the G-ST-GP model and the space-filling design guided by the geodesic distance across the 3D geometry. We implement the proposed framework to model the spatiotemporal electrodynamics in a 3D heart geometry. Numerical experiments show that our framework outperforms traditional methods lacking the mechanism of geometric information incorporation or effective data collection.